Despite Bitcoin's recent 15% gain this month, reaching $78,192.97, some industry experts remain unconvinced that it has escaped the bear market that began in October, given that it still lags 40% behind its record high. Some forecasters predict a potential drop to as low as $40,000, a 70% decline from its all-time high, with analyst James Check considering such a move statistically extraordinary, though not impossible.
Check references the Bitcoin Mean Reversion Index, which combines key valuation metrics, indicating that a $40,000 price would be a 0.4th percentile event, significantly below any meaningful deviation. Currently, Bitcoin's price is around the 31.5th percentile, historically weak but within normal correction ranges. Check notes that while no market event has zero probability, a $40,000 price would be a near-unprecedented outcome, equivalent to Bitcoin trading below $2 in 2011 on a relative basis.