The alleged $400,000 insider bet by a Green Beret on a Venezuelan raid initially seemed like an isolated incident. However, a new report by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) suggests that it may be just the tip of the iceberg.
The nonprofit research group analyzed over 435,000 markets and $54.4 billion in cumulative volume on Polymarket from January 2021 to mid-March 2026. The findings indicate that low-probability bets on military and defense outcomes have success rates that are difficult to explain through skill or luck, with some cases reaching over 50%. This is significantly higher than the typical 14% success rate for longshot bets in other political markets. The authors of the report note that markets tied to specific government policies, such as military and defense, are more susceptible to information asymmetries, including insider trading or specialized knowledge.
The gap between informed and uninformed traders may be widest in these markets, creating conditions that allow a small group to consistently outperform others. Polymarket has market surveillance teams and cooperates with the Department of Justice on the Venezuela case, and trading on confidential knowledge is prohibited on the platform.
The report's findings add to existing research that roughly 3% of traders account for most price discovery on Polymarket, and that profits are concentrated among fewer than 1% of wallets. The ACDC report examines the June 2025 U.S. strikes on Iran as a case study, finding that 19 longshot bets totaling $164,292 were placed in the hours leading up to the strike, with eight wallets sharing about $1.8 million in profits.
The report suggests that some participants may be operating with information advantages that others do not have, and recommends identity verification for bettors, conditional payouts on suspicious wagers, restrictions on markets whose outcomes are decided by small groups, and limits on how granular contracts can become. The report concludes by calling for an evidence-informed debate about whether the public should be betting on these outcomes at all.