A historic stock market debut is imminent, with SpaceX's initial public offering expected in June, which could divert interest and liquidity from the crypto market. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming for a $75 billion capital raise at a valuation of $1.75 trillion.
If successful, this would surpass Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019, making it the largest stock market debut in history. Additionally, OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with valuations nearing $1 trillion and $60 billion, respectively. The combined capital raised from these IPOs could exceed $240 billion, a figure that surpasses every venture-backed US IPO since 2000.
This massive influx of capital could lead to a rotation out of equities and into these new listings, potentially affecting crypto markets. As crypto assets are part of the same risk-on liquidity pool as tech and AI equities, a decrease in speculative capital in equities could also impact crypto prices. The historical precedent of Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, serves as a cautionary tale. The upcoming SpaceX IPO, with its 30% retail allocation and material bitcoin position, will be a significant test for crypto markets.
Whether crypto can decouple from broader risk-on flows and hold up through the roadshow window in May and June remains to be seen.