The current price of bitcoin, at $78,312.55, has not yet reached its lowest point, and it is unlikely to reach a new all-time high this year, according to Michael Terpin, also known as the 'Crypto Godfather'. Terpin, who wrote Bitcoin Supercycle: How the Crypto Calendar Can Make You Rich, believes that before bitcoin can experience a bull market, its price must surpass $100,000, which he says is not currently supported. He predicts that the price will bottom out at $57,000 by October.
Despite a double-digit increase in April, Terpin asserts that the bitcoin market is still in a downturn. Terpin's bearish outlook contrasts with the views of most analysts, who believe that the low of $60,000 in February marked the end of the bear market and the beginning of a new bull run.
They cite the renewed inflow of funds into US-listed spot ETFs and the resilience of the token during the Iran conflict and oil price spike as evidence. In an interview, Terpin stated that the psychological barrier of $80,000 was strongly rejected during Asian trading hours on Monday, which he attributes to the high oil price. This, he claims, is typical of the current stage of the bitcoin cycle, characterized by lower highs being rejected until the final capitulation. Market analyst Jason Fernandes agrees that the bottom has not yet been reached but disagrees with Terpin's timeline, arguing that the market may not have fully capitulated.
Fernandes believes that historically, durable bottoms coincide with a clear exhaustion of speculative leverage and macro uncertainty, which has not yet occurred. Terpin insists that the fundamentals indicate a bottom that includes the historical average of the one-year period from each cycle's bottom, which suggests a price of around $57,000.
Fernandes notes that broader macro conditions could continue to negatively impact risk assets, including bitcoin, due to tight liquidity conditions and a higher-for-longer rate environment. The 'Crypto Godfather' also claims that bitcoin will not reach an all-time high this year, a prediction disputed by crypto market analyst Mati Greenspan, who thinks that the level of institutional adoption and growing interest makes a new all-time high plausible. Fernandes also argues that market sentiment has not yet reached the extreme pessimism typically associated with cycle bottoms, suggesting that another downturn may be necessary before a sustainable base is formed.