The US-driven momentum that fueled April's rally is losing steam. The Coinbase Premium, which measures the difference between the price on Coinbase and offshore exchanges, has flipped negative for the first time since early April, according to CryptoQuant data. This metric had been consistently positive from April 8 to April 22, during which time bitcoin rose from $66,000 to a local high of nearly $78,000.
The premium peaked around April 22 and has been declining since. As a proxy for US institutional and dollar-denominated flows, a persistent negative reading indicates that American investors are paying less than the rest of the world, either due to aggressive selling or a lack of participation.
On-chain data paints a similar picture, with the 7-day sum of Bitcoin Realized Loss spiking to $5.97 billion on April 24 as bitcoin traded near $78,000. This suggests that sellers who bought at higher prices are now selling at a loss. According to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr., this cohort likely entered the market between $80,000 and $95,000 in late 2025 and early 2026, using the April bounce as an opportunity to exit rather than reenter. The combination of these datasets indicates that US institutional buyers are slowing their pace on Coinbase, while holders are increasing their selling activity.
With bitcoin recently trading around $76,000, traders are watching to see if the Realized Loss metric will continue to decline as the underwater supply is worked through. The reading has already decreased from its April 24 peak to $4.7 billion by April 28, suggesting that the seller cohort is dwindling.