According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom fund, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is not just about cheaper trading, but about capturing the upside. The Hyperliquid Improvement Proposal (HIP)-4 introduces event trading on the platform with a zero-fee-to-open model. Hayes believes the real differentiator is Hyperliquid's exchange token, HYPE, which enables users to benefit from platform activity, unlike Polymarket and Kalshi. With a large user base, lower trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure, Hayes predicts HIP-4 will become a dominant prediction market.
The HYPE token has a fully-diluted valuation of around $38 billion, compared to Polymarket's implied valuation of $14 billion. In contrast to Polymarket and Kalshi, Hyperliquid faces no geographical constraints, with its user base skewed towards Asia, where crypto-native trading is already established.
The contrast is most pronounced with Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange that focuses on compliance and licensing, rather than token incentives, limiting users' access to the platform's upside.