A historic stock market debut is approaching, and crypto's fate is closely tied to the outcome. SpaceX has filed for a $75 billion IPO, which could be the largest in history, with a valuation of $1.75 trillion. This massive offering, combined with the upcoming listings of OpenAI and Anthropic, is expected to raise over $240 billion from June to the end of the year, surpassing the total amount raised by all US venture-backed IPOs since 2000. The sheer scale of these IPOs may drain the liquidity that has been supporting bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Crypto assets are part of the same risk-on liquidity pool as tech and AI equities, and when speculative capital leaves equities for an IPO allocation, it may also reduce the demand for higher-beta assets like crypto. The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, is a point of concern. The 30% retail allocation in the SpaceX IPO, roughly $22 billion, may also divert funds away from crypto.
Furthermore, SpaceX's disclosed bitcoin position of 8,285 BTC, worth around $600 million, makes its IPO the first public-market debut of a company with a material bitcoin position. The impact of these IPOs on crypto will be closely watched, and the testable signal will be whether crypto holds up through the roadshow window in May and June or begins to drift lower as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription.