Despite Bitcoin's recent 15% monthly gain, with its current price at $78,203.86, some industry experts believe it has yet to escape the bear market that began in October, given its 40% drop from its record high. Some forecasters predict a potential decline to as low as $40,000, a 70% drop from its all-time high, although analyst James Check considers this scenario unlikely, describing it as statistically extraordinary.
Check references the Bitcoin Mean Reversion Index, which combines key valuation metrics, and notes that a price of $40,000 would be a 0.4th percentile event, significantly below any meaningful historical deviation. This would be equivalent to Bitcoin trading below $2 in 2011 on a relative basis, compared to its current price, which is around the 31.5th percentile, a historically weak but normal correction range. Check emphasizes that while no market event has zero probability, a $40,000 Bitcoin price would be a nearly unprecedented outcome.