The price of bitcoin has not yet reached its lowest point and is unlikely to achieve a new record high this year, according to Michael Terpin, a pioneering bitcoin investor and author of Bitcoin Supercycle: How the Crypto Calendar Can Make You Rich. Terpin, often referred to as the 'Crypto Godfather' due to his early involvement in the industry, believes that before a bull market can commence, the price of bitcoin must surpass $100,000, which he does not foresee happening in the near future.
He predicts that the bottom will be reached at $57,000, possibly in October. This prediction contradicts the consensus among analysts that the low of $60,000 in February marked the end of the bear market and the beginning of a new bull run. Most analysts cited the renewed inflows into U.S.-listed spot ETFs and bitcoin's resilience during the Iran conflict and oil price spike as reasons for their outlook. In an interview, Terpin stated that the psychological barrier of $80,000 was strongly rejected during Asian trading hours, which he believes is typical at this stage of the bitcoin cycle.
Jason Fernandes, a market analyst and co-founder of AdLunam, agrees with Terpin that the bottom has not yet been seen but disagrees with the timeline, suggesting that the market may not have fully capitulated. Terpin insists that the fundamentals point to a bottom that includes the historical average of the one-year period from each cycle's bottom, indicating a price of around $57,000. Fernandes notes that broader macro conditions could continue to weigh on risk assets, including bitcoin, and that liquidity conditions remain tight. Mati Greenspan, a crypto market analyst and founder of Quantum Economics, disagrees with Terpin's prediction, stating that his take seems overly bearish and that an all-time high this year is plausible given the level of institutional adoption and growing interest.