A surge in social media posts is predicting that Bitcoin's price will exceed $90,000, potentially turning the year-to-date return positive. However, this widespread optimism may not necessarily translate to market performance. Santiment's analysis of thousands of social media posts across various platforms reveals a strong bias towards a $90,000 price target, with many dismissing the possibility of a $50,000-$59,000 range as mere fear, uncertainty, and doubt.
The crowd's expectations of an extended recovery into May seem reasonable, given the recent influx of funds into exchange-traded funds and Bitcoin's resilience in the face of global conflicts, oil price spikes, and DeFi hacks. Nevertheless, Santiment warns that such bullishness can be a contrarian indicator, suggesting a potential bearish outcome. This phenomenon is reminiscent of the wisdom of American poet Charles Bukowski, who advised, 'Wherever the crowd goes, run in the other direction. They're always wrong.' Contrarian traders often rely on sentiment gauges, such as the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey and the CNN Fear & Greed Index, to inform their decisions.
Notably, Bitcoin's recovery rally has already experienced a setback this week, with prices retreating to $77,000 from Monday's highs above $79,000, leaving the question of whether this is a temporary pause or the beginning of a broader reversal.