According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom fund, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is focused on capturing the upside, not just reducing trading costs. The company is preparing to launch a zero-fee-to-open model for event trading under HIP-4, which introduces event trading on the platform.
Hayes argues that the real differentiator is Hyperliquid's exchange token, HYPE, which allows users to benefit from platform activity, unlike Polymarket and Kalshi. With a large user base, lower trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure, Hayes predicts that HIP-4 will become a dominant prediction market, with HYPE token holders able to directly profit from their usage of the platform. In contrast, Polymarket is expected to launch a token, and Kalshi's model is built around compliance and licensing, without token incentives, making it the most direct test of Hayes' thesis.