A historic stock market debut is imminent, with SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) anticipated to take place in June, potentially drawing interest away from the crypto market. The company has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. This would make it the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion IPO in 2019.
Polymarket traders predict a 65% probability of the IPO occurring in June and a 53% chance that the first-day closing market cap will exceed $2 trillion. SpaceX is not alone in its plans, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also preparing for listings, which could collectively raise over $240 billion from June to the end of the year. This capital pull is expected to be larger than the combined total of all venture-backed US IPOs since 2000.
The impending IPOs may have a significant impact on the crypto market, as they could drain liquidity and lead to a rotation out of equities. According to Alex Good, founder of crypto AI project Post Fiat, the SpaceX IPO could mark the beginning of a bearish trend in equities, similar to the 'Solana $300 moment.' Crypto assets, including bitcoin, are likely to be affected, as they are part of the same risk-on liquidity pool as tech and AI equities. The historical parallel with Coinbase's listing in April 2021, which coincided with the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, is a point of concern.
The lesson learned from this experience is that institutional milestones often mark the top of a cycle rather than the starting line, as the capital that chases these milestones is the same capital that was previously supporting the asset. The SpaceX IPO has two features that directly connect to crypto flows: the 30% retail allocation, which is roughly $22 billion, and the company's holding of 8,285 BTC, worth around $600 million, in Coinbase Prime custody. The testable signal going forward is whether crypto can hold up through the roadshow window in May and June or will begin to drift lower as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription.
A bitcoin rally that extends through the roadshow may suggest that the spot-ETF bid has decoupled crypto from broader risk-on flows.