The US-driven momentum that fueled April's price surge is losing steam. The Coinbase Premium, which measures the difference in price between Coinbase and offshore exchanges, has turned negative for the first time since early April, according to CryptoQuant data.
This metric had consistently been positive from April 8 to April 22, during which time bitcoin's price rose from $66,000 to a local high of nearly $78,000. The premium peaked around April 22 and has been declining since. As Coinbase is often used as a proxy for US institutional and dollar-denominated flows, a persistent negative reading suggests that American investors are now paying less than the rest of the world, indicating they are either selling more aggressively or not participating in the market. On-chain data paints a similar picture.
The 7-day sum of Bitcoin Realized Loss, which tracks the total dollar value of coins sold at a loss, surged to $5.97 billion on April 24 as bitcoin traded near $78,000. This realized loss is only recognized when coins are sold below their original purchase price.
The fact that the realized loss reached nearly $6 billion at a price of $78,000 implies that the sellers were buyers who entered the market at higher prices. According to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr., this cohort likely entered the market between $80,000 and $95,000 in late 2025 and early 2026, using the April bounce as an opportunity to exit rather than re-enter. The combination of these two datasets suggests that US institutional buyers are slowing their purchases through Coinbase, while holders are increasing their selling activity.
With bitcoin recently trading around $76,000, traders are watching to see if the Realized Loss metric continues to decline as the supply of underwater coins is cleared. The reading has already decreased from its April 24 peak to $4.7 billion by April 28, indicating that the seller cohort is dwindling.