According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is centered around capturing the upside, rather than just offering cheaper trading. As reported by CoinDesk, Hyperliquid is set to introduce a zero-fee-to-open model for event trading under the Hyperliquid Improvement Proposal (HIP)-4. Hayes believes that the true differentiator lies in the HYPE token, which enables users to profit from platform activity, unlike Polymarket and Kalshi. Hayes stated, 'HIP-4 will quickly become a dominant prediction market due to Hyperliquid's large user base, lower trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure.
Users who own the $HYPE token can directly benefit from their usage of HIP-4.' In contrast to Polymarket, which is expected to launch its own token, and Kalshi, which is regulated by the CFTC and focuses on compliance, Hyperliquid's model is designed to incentivize users through the HYPE token. The pre-listing market for Polymarket's potential token is trading around $14, implying a fully-diluted valuation of approximately $14 billion, whereas HYPE has an FDV of around $38 billion. However, pre-listing markets can be speculative and thinly traded, making it essential to approach implied valuations with caution.
The geographical landscape also plays a crucial role, with Polymarket facing regulatory challenges in Asia and Hyperliquid having an Asia-skewed user base with no equivalent constraints. In contrast, Kalshi's model is built around compliance and licensing, likely ruling out the value-accrual layer Hayes is referencing. This contrast makes Kalshi the most direct test of Hayes' thesis, as users can trade event outcomes but have no path to the platform's upside. Across the three platforms, the structural split is evident: Hyperliquid ties usage to a token, Polymarket appears to be moving in that direction, and Kalshi's model likely prevents it altogether.