The 30-year US Treasury yield has surged to 5%, its highest level since July 2025, prompting concerns among crypto analysts about the potential impact on bitcoin. This milestone has only been reached twice in the past two decades. The yield increase is attributed to a combination of factors, including dissent within the Federal Reserve, elevated oil prices, and rising long-term inflation expectations. As a result, bond yields are becoming more attractive, potentially drawing capital away from risk assets like bitcoin.
Diana Pires, chief business officer at sFOX, noted that as long as yields remain high and the Fed's monetary policy stays tight, capital will favor safer alternatives, putting pressure on assets like crypto. Bitcoin is already under pressure, trading at $75,670, down 2% over 24 hours, while the Dollar Index hovers above 99.
The rise in bond yields typically hurts risk assets, including bitcoin, as investors seek more attractive, lower-risk returns. Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Giottus exchange, stated that rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar have historically pressured crypto valuations by tightening financial conditions. The 10-year yield, a benchmark for borrowing costs, is also elevated, pointing to financial tightening and increased borrowing costs.
This environment is expected to continue, with the Fed signaling no near-term shift in its monetary policy. As a result, the macro backdrop remains a headwind for crypto, favoring yield and safety over volatility.