As April comes to a close, bitcoin is adopting a cautious stance, with its price currently at $78,194.39. However, historical trends suggest that any downturns may be short-lived, potentially paving the way for a renewed upward trajectory in the coming weeks. Since 2013, May has generally been a favorable month for the largest cryptocurrency, with it experiencing gains in seven out of the past 13 years. Although the average return of around 8% is less impressive compared to stronger months like October and November, it still indicates a positive bias.
Following April's roughly 10% gain, the seasonal pattern suggests that the broader uptrend could remain intact, supported by similar bullish seasonality in the S&P 500, which is already hovering near record highs. The back-to-back net monthly inflows into U.S.-listed spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) indicate strong institutional demand, further supporting the bullish case, with these ETFs pulling in over $1.8 billion this month after March's $1.32 billion.
Nevertheless, traders must keep a close eye on bond markets, where rising yields pose a challenge to risk assets. Analysts warn that the market is currently range-bound rather than setting up for a breakout, with macro headwinds limiting near-term upside despite broadly flat performance.
The risk of a global economic flare-up, potentially triggered by the Iran war and energy market disruption, could also impact the global economy in May. A bullish crossover is impending, where the 50-day average is poised to move above the 100-day average, indicating short-term momentum is strengthening and may point to further upside if sustained.