A historic stock market debut is approaching, with SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) expected to take place in June. The company has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. This would make it the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion IPO in 2019.
OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with valuations nearing $1 trillion and $60 billion, respectively. If all three companies reach the public market as scheduled, they would pull in over $240 billion from June to the end of the year, exceeding the total amount raised by venture-backed US IPOs since 2000.
This massive capital influx could impact the liquidity of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, as they share the same risk-on liquidity pool as tech and AI equities. The correlation between crypto and traditional markets has tightened over the past two cycles, with bitcoin and ether trading in tandem with the Nasdaq and S&P 500. When speculative capital leaves equities for an IPO allocation, some of it may exit the crypto market, potentially causing a downturn. The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, is a point of concern.
The 30% retail allocation of SpaceX's IPO, roughly $22 billion, may also divert funds away from crypto. Additionally, SpaceX's disclosed bitcoin position of 8,285 BTC, worth around $600 million, makes its IPO the first public-market debut of a company with a material bitcoin holding. The upcoming roadshow window in May and June will be a test for crypto, as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription. If crypto holds up during this period, it may indicate that the spot-ETF bid has decoupled crypto from broader risk-on flows.