As bitcoin appeared poised to break through the $80,000 barrier, macroeconomic uncertainty resurfaced. A classified briefing by the Pentagon to U.S.
lawmakers revealed that clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz could take at least six months, with the process contingent on the resolution of the U.S.-Iran conflict. This warning also indicated that gasoline and oil prices may remain elevated until the midterm elections, potentially keeping inflation high and limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates.
This scenario presents a challenging backdrop for risk assets, including bitcoin, which is highly sensitive to interest rates and global liquidity conditions. Rising essential costs could also deter investors from allocating capital to speculative assets. Market indicators such as WTI crude and government bond yields are on the rise, signaling tighter financial conditions and increased market risks. Despite sustained demand in U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs, some analysts advise caution, citing the rally's lack of broad-based support in the spot market and the potential for correction if traders take profits while spot demand continues to contract.