A historic stock market debut is imminent, with SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) anticipated to take place in June, drawing interest from the same liquidity pool as crypto. The company has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming for a $75 billion capital raise at a $1.75 trillion valuation.
If successful, this would be the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019. SpaceX is not alone, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with the trio potentially raising over $240 billion by the end of the year. This massive capital pull could have a significant impact on the crypto market, as it sits in the same risk-on liquidity pool as tech and AI equities.
Bitcoin, ether, and other major cryptocurrencies have traded with increasing correlation to the Nasdaq and S&P 500 over the past two cycles. When speculative capital leaves equities for an IPO allocation, some of the capital that would otherwise drive up crypto prices may be redirected. The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021 is a point of concern, as it marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, followed by a 50% drawdown. The SpaceX IPO has two features that connect directly to crypto flows: a 30% retail allocation, which could divert funds away from crypto, and the company's material bitcoin position, disclosed under new fair-value accounting rules.
The testable signal going forward is whether crypto holds up through the roadshow window in May and June or begins to decline as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription. A bitcoin rally that extends through the roadshow suggests the spot-ETF bid has decoupled crypto from broader risk-on flows.