The price of bitcoin has not yet reached its lowest point and is unlikely to achieve a new all-time high this year, according to Michael Terpin, a well-known early investor in bitcoin and author of the book Bitcoin Supercycle. Terpin believes the price of bitcoin needs to fall to approximately $57,000 by October before it can begin to rise.
A market analyst, however, disagrees with this assessment. Terpin, often referred to as the 'crypto Godfather' due to his involvement in the industry since 2013, founded Transform Group, one of the first PR firms focused on blockchain companies, as well as CoinAgenda and BitAngels. His prediction contradicts the general consensus among analysts that the low of $60,000 in February marked the end of the bear market and the start of a new bull run. Many of these analysts cited the renewed inflows into U.S.-listed spot ETFs and the token's resilience during the Iran conflict and the oil price spike as factors supporting their outlook.
In an interview, Terpin stated that the psychological barrier of $80,000 was strongly rejected during Asian trading hours on Monday, with the high price of oil being a contributing factor. He explained that this is typical at this stage of the bitcoin cycle, with lower highs being rejected until the final capitulation. Jason Fernandes, a market analyst and co-founder of AdLunam, agrees with Terpin that the bottom has not yet been reached but disagrees with the timeline, suggesting that the market may not have fully capitulated. Fernandes believes that 'Terpin makes a reasonable case for a later-cycle bottom, but I don’t believe bitcoin has fully capitulated yet.' Historically, durable bottoms tend to coincide with a clear exhaustion of both speculative leverage and macro uncertainty, and we’re definitely not there yet.
Terpin insists that the fundamentals point more toward a bottom that includes the historical average of the one-year period from each cycle's bottom, indicating somewhere around $57,000. He predicts this will happen sometime in October, about the same timeline from last year when BTC first dipped below $100,000, followed by the October 10 crash, when $19 billion in leveraged positions were wiped out in the largest single-day event on record. Fernandes added that broader macro conditions could continue to weigh on risk assets, including bitcoin, as 'liquidity conditions remain tight, and risk assets broadly are still adjusting to a higher-for-longer rate environment.' Until we see a more decisive shift in monetary policy or a true washout event in crypto markets, downside volatility remains likely. The author and entrepreneur also said bitcoin will not see an all-time high this year.
However, Mati Greenspan, a crypto market analyst and founder of Quantum Economics, disagrees, saying 'While I'm hesitant to ever disagree with the 'Crypto Godfather,' his take seems overly bearish to me.' AdLunam's Fernandes also said market sentiment has not yet reached the levels typically associated with cycle bottoms, and 'sentiment hasn’t reached the kind of extreme pessimism that typically marks cycle lows.' To him, that says we may still need one more leg down – whether or not it aligns exactly with the $57,000 to $59,000 range – before a sustainable base is formed. Regarding Terpin’s $100,000 level, Fernandes said it serves more as a psychological signal than a strict technical threshold, and 'a true bull market is defined by structural higher highs and strong capital inflows, not just a single price level.'