The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a mixed trend, with bitcoin remaining largely stagnant while other major cryptocurrencies and oil prices experience significant fluctuations. On Wednesday, during Asian trading hours, bitcoin hovered just below $77,000, marking a 0.1% increase over 24 hours and a 0.8% decrease over the week. This stability is notable, especially considering the surge in Brent crude prices to over $111 per barrel, sparked by a Wall Street Journal report that President Donald Trump has instructed his aides to prepare for a prolonged US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
In response to the situation, Iran has claimed to be in a state of collapse, according to Trump's statement on Truth Social. Tehran, however, has indicated that it may consider an interim deal to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports. Among other major cryptocurrencies, ether experienced a 2.6% weekly decline to $2,310, XRP fell 3.8% to $1.39, Solana dropped 3.2% to $84.57, and BNB decreased 2.3% to $625.
The only top-10 token, excluding stablecoins, to show a positive trend was dogecoin, which rose 5.5% over the week to $0.1016. As a result, bitcoin's market dominance is gradually increasing, a common occurrence when macroeconomic stress leads to capital flowing into the largest asset.
Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, attributes bitcoin's relative stability to a shift in market structure. In a note, Ebtikar stated, 'The supply overhang has finally dried up, and the sellers who were spooked by macro shifts or quantum fears have already exited, leaving the market much thinner on the sell-side than it was just a few months ago.' He further added, 'Bitcoin is far less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policy than people think. Its sensitivity is purely a function of wider volatility, and since we're currently in a quieter trading range, there's no immediate rush for the exits.' From a technical perspective, analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as a critical level, where a break in the upward range that has held since late March could potentially lead to further downside.
Conversely, a reversal towards $80,000 from current levels would maintain the rally structure and set up a retest of the resistance that has rejected bitcoin's attempts since February. The Federal Reserve's rate decision, scheduled for later on Wednesday, followed by the European Central Bank's decision on Thursday, may significantly impact the market. The US equity market experienced a sell-off on Tuesday due to growing skepticism about the payoff from artificial intelligence capital expenditure, although Nasdaq 100 futures recovered 0.4% in Asian hours.
The price of Brent crude continues to fluctuate, staying elevated near $111, which may put renewed pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions. Traders will be watching to see if bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion can withstand the next macro shock. If Ebtikar's analysis is correct, the seller base that capitulated in March and April is gone, and bitcoin's price will be driven by volatility rather than headlines until a new selling pressure emerges. However, if the analysis is incorrect, the $75,000 level may be tested quickly, and the range break flagged by Bitget could play out as expected.