According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom fund, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is focused on capturing the upside, rather than just offering cheaper trading. The Hyperliquid Improvement Proposal (HIP)-4 introduces event trading on the platform, with a zero-fee-to-open model. Hayes believes that the real differentiator is the HYPE token, which allows users to benefit from platform activity, unlike Polymarket and Kalshi. He stated that HIP-4 will quickly become a dominant prediction market due to Hyperliquid's large user base, lower trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure, with HYPE token holders able to directly profit from their usage of HIP-4.
In contrast, Polymarket is expected to launch a token, and Kalshi's model is built around compliance and licensing, without token incentives. The geographic distribution of users also plays a role, with Hyperliquid facing no equivalent constraints in Asia, where its user base is skewed. The contrast is clearest with Kalshi, which is a CFTC-regulated exchange with a model built around compliance and licensing, not token incentives, making it the most direct test of Hayes' thesis.