A historic stock market debut is approaching, and crypto is likely to be impacted as it shares the same liquidity pool. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion.
If successful, this would be the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019. The combined capital raise of SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic is estimated to exceed $240 billion from June to the end of the year, a figure that surpasses every venture-backed US IPO since 2000. This massive capital pull may lead to a rotation out of equities and a compression of liquidity in other assets, including crypto. Bitcoin, ether, and other major cryptocurrencies have traded in tandem with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 over the past two cycles, and a significant allocation of capital to the SpaceX IPO could potentially drain liquidity from these markets.
The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, is a point of concern. The 30% retail allocation of the SpaceX IPO, roughly $22 billion, is also noteworthy, as it may divert capital away from crypto. Furthermore, SpaceX's material bitcoin position, worth approximately $600 million, makes its IPO the first public-market debut of a company with a disclosed bitcoin position under the new fair-value accounting rules.
The impact of the SpaceX IPO on crypto markets will be closely watched, particularly during the roadshow window in May and June.