Despite the turmoil in the financial markets, Bitcoin has shown minimal movement. On Wednesday, during Asian trading hours, the largest cryptocurrency reached nearly $77,000, representing a 0.1% increase over 24 hours and a 0.8% decline over the week.
This stability occurred even as Brent crude oil prices exceeded $111 per barrel following a Wall Street Journal report that President Donald Trump had instructed his aides to prepare for an extended US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. In response to the situation, Iran has claimed the country is in a state of collapse, according to Trump's statement on Truth Social. Tehran, however, has signaled its willingness to accept an interim agreement to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade on Iranian ports.
The prices of other major cryptocurrencies, such as Ether, XRP, Solana, and BNB, have declined over the week, with losses ranging from 2.3% to 3.8%. In contrast, Dogecoin experienced a 5.5% increase, making it the only top-10 token, excluding stablecoins, to show gains over the past week. As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance has begun to rise, a trend that often occurs when macroeconomic stress increases and capital flows into the largest asset.
According to Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, Bitcoin's relative calmness is indicative of a shift in market structure. Ebtikar stated that the supply overhang has been depleted, and sellers who were previously spooked by macro shifts or quantum fears have already exited the market, leaving it much thinner on the sell-side than it was a few months ago. He also noted that Bitcoin is less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policy than people think, and its sensitivity is primarily a function of wider volatility. With the current quieter trading range, there is no immediate rush for the exits.
From a technical perspective, analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as the critical level where the upward range that has held since late March could break, potentially leading to further downside. Alternatively, a reversal toward $80,000 from current levels would maintain the rally structure and set up a retest of the resistance that has rejected Bitcoin's attempts since February. The Federal Reserve is set to announce its rate decision later on Wednesday, followed by the European Central Bank's decision on Thursday.
The US equity market experienced a sell-off on Tuesday due to growing skepticism about the payoff from artificial intelligence capital expenditure, although Nasdaq 100 futures have since recovered 0.4% in Asian hours. Brent crude oil prices have fluctuated between gains and losses but remain elevated near $111, putting renewed pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions. Traders will be watching to see if Bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion can withstand the next macro shock. If Ebtikar's assessment is correct, the seller base that capitulated through March and April is gone, and Bitcoin will trade based on volatility rather than headlines until something triggers a fresh wave of selling.
However, if the assessment is incorrect, the $75,000 level may be tested quickly, and the range break flagged by Bitget could play out as anticipated.