The general consensus among retail investors is that bitcoin's price will rise above $90,000 in the near future, potentially turning this year's losses into gains. However, it remains to be seen whether the market will follow this trend. Analytics firm Santiment has analyzed social media posts across various platforms, including X, Reddit, and Telegram, and found that the majority of users are expecting bitcoin's price to surpass $90,000.
Mentions of lower price ranges, between $50,000 and $59,000, are being dismissed as negative sentiment. The crowd is anticipating a continued recovery from the February low of around $60,000, which is understandable given the recent influx of funds into exchange-traded funds and bitcoin's resilience in the face of global conflict and DeFi hacks. According to Santiment, this widespread optimism is actually a reason to be cautious, as it can often act as a contrarian indicator.
The firm suggests that overly bullish social sentiment can be a sign of a potential bearish performance. This approach is similar to that used by contrarian traders in traditional markets, who use sentiment gauges such as the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey and the CNN Fear & Greed Index to inform their decisions. Notably, bitcoin's recovery rally has already stalled this week, with prices dropping to $77,000 from highs above $79,000 on Monday.
It is unclear whether this is a temporary pause or the start of a broader reversal.