The US-driven rally in April is losing momentum. The Coinbase Premium, which measures the difference between the price on Coinbase and offshore exchanges, has turned negative for the first time since early April, according to CryptoQuant data. This metric had been consistently positive from April 8 to April 22, coinciding with bitcoin's rise from $66,000 to a local high of $78,000. The premium peaked around April 22 and has declined since.
As a proxy for US institutional and dollar-denominated flows, a persistent negative reading indicates that American investors are paying less than the rest of the world, either due to aggressive selling or a lack of participation. On-chain data supports this narrative, with the 7-day sum of Bitcoin Realized Loss spiking to $5.97 billion on April 24 as bitcoin traded near $78,000. This suggests that sellers who bought coins at higher prices, likely between $80,000 and $95,000 in late 2025 and early 2026, are using the April bounce as an exit opportunity rather than a reentry point.
The decline in the Realized Loss metric, from $5.97 billion on April 24 to $4.7 billion by April 28, indicates that the seller cohort is dwindling. Traders are now watching to see if this trend continues as the underwater supply is worked through.