Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, believes that Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets will be driven by more than just cost-effective trading. The decentralized exchange is preparing to launch a zero-fee model for event trading under its HIP-4 proposal, which introduces event trading on the platform. Hayes argues that the true differentiator is Hyperliquid's exchange token, HYPE, which allows users to profit directly from platform activity, unlike Polymarket and Kalshi. With its large user base, lower trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure, Hayes predicts that HIP-4 will quickly become a leading prediction market.
The advantage of HYPE is that it enables users to benefit from their usage of the platform, a feature that Polymarket and Kalshi do not currently offer. In comparison, Polymarket is expected to launch its own token, while Kalshi's model, as a CFTC-regulated exchange, is built around compliance and licensing rather than token incentives. This contrast makes Kalshi the most direct test of Hayes' thesis, as users can trade event outcomes but have no path to the platform's upside.
The structural split between the three platforms is clear: Hyperliquid ties usage to a token, Polymarket appears to be moving in that direction, and Kalshi's model likely prevents it altogether. With a fully diluted valuation of around $38 billion, according to CoinGecko data, HYPE has a significant advantage over its competitors. Meanwhile, pre-listing markets for Polymarket's potential token are trading around $14, implying a fully diluted valuation of roughly $14 billion. However, it is essential to approach these valuations with caution, as pre-listing markets can be highly speculative and thinly traded.