The alleged insider bet of $400,000 by a Green Beret on a Venezuela raid, initially thought to be an isolated incident, may be just the tip of the iceberg. The Anti-Corruption Data Collective, a nonprofit research organization, has analyzed over 435,000 markets and $54.4 billion in cumulative volume on Polymarket from January 2021 to mid-March 2026. The findings indicate that low-probability bets on military and defense outcomes have success rates that are difficult to explain by skill or luck alone, with some cases reaching over 50%. Typically, such 'longshot' bets succeed around 14% of the time across political markets.

The authors of the report suggest that markets related to government policies, such as military and defense, are more susceptible to information asymmetries, including insider trading or specialized knowledge, due to the difficulty in forecasting outcomes using public information. This creates an environment where a small group of traders can consistently outperform others by having access to more information. Polymarket emphasizes its market surveillance teams and cooperation with the Department of Justice on the Venezuela case, noting that trading on confidential knowledge is prohibited on the platform. The report's findings add to existing research indicating that a small percentage of traders account for most price discovery on Polymarket, with roughly 3% of traders driving prices, and fewer than 1% of wallets capturing about half of all gains.

The ACDC report examines the June 2025 U.S. strikes on Iran as a case study, where 19 longshot bets totaling $164,292 were placed in the hours leading up to the strike, with eight wallets sharing about $1.8 million in profits. The pattern of well-timed bets on military and defense outcomes extends beyond this single event, with winning longshot bets outnumbering losing ones in five of the six two-hour windows before market resolution.

The consistency of these patterns suggests that some participants may have information advantages that others do not. The report recommends identity verification for bettors, conditional payouts on suspicious wagers, restrictions on markets whose outcomes are decided by small groups, and limits on how granular contracts can become.

Ultimately, the report calls for an evidence-informed debate on whether the public should be allowed to bet on these outcomes at all.