Bitcoin, currently trading at $78,375.27, has fallen by 3% in morning trading in Asia, hovering around $77,000 as the market prepares for a week filled with significant macroeconomic events. The decline appears to be driven by caution rather than a shift in market sentiment. According to Enflux, a Singapore-based market maker, traders are hesitant to drive up the price of bitcoin ahead of the upcoming rate decision and data releases, including GDP, PCE inflation, and the Employment Cost Index, which will shape expectations for potential rate cuts by the Fed in the second half of the year. The current constraint is largely due to oil prices, with Brent crude remaining above $100, complicating the inflation outlook and making it more challenging for the Fed to signal a dovish stance.
Enflux notes that the market is operating under two competing assumptions: that geopolitical tensions will eventually ease, but not quickly enough to influence near-term policy, effectively pricing out rate cuts for June and creating a more ambiguous backdrop for risk assets. As a result, bitcoin has struggled to break above key technical levels, trading roughly 4% below its short-term holder cost basis near $80,700, a level often seen as a proxy for marginal buyer conviction. A decisive move above this level would likely require a clear signal from the Fed that oil-driven inflation is temporary.
In the absence of such a signal, Enflux expects bitcoin to trade cautiously into Thursday's data releases, with sharper moves more likely tied to macro prints than the Fed statement itself. Beyond this week, a less visible force may also be shaping bitcoin's next moves, as The Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI has missed key revenue targets, raising questions about the pace of AI demand.
Listed BTC mining companies have taken on significant debt while selling portions of their treasuries to pivot to hosting AI data centers, a venture believed to be more profitable than mining. A slowdown in this pivot could potentially slow down selling.
When demand for compute is strong, miners have the incentive and financing to keep building, often leading to continued BTC sales to fund capex and service debt. However, if OpenAI's miss signals that AI growth may not keep pace with expectations, the dynamic becomes more complex.
A slowdown in AI expansion could ease miner-driven selling over time, removing a source of supply. The problem is timing: sell pressure on semiconductor and data stocks, due to weaker tech and risk appetite, would likely bring down the crypto market, while any relief from slower miner selling would come later. In that sense, the AI story only reinforces Enflux's broader point, with the market stuck between competing macro forces, and any slowdown in AI demand adding another layer of uncertainty without immediately resolving the ones that matter most for price. For now, this keeps bitcoin trading in the same narrow band, waiting for a clearer signal.