The price of bitcoin, currently at $78,375.27, has not yet reached its lowest point and is unlikely to achieve a new all-time high this year, according to Michael Terpin, a veteran bitcoin investor and author of Bitcoin Supercycle: How the Crypto Calendar Can Make You Rich. Terpin, often referred to as the 'Crypto Godfather' due to his early involvement in the industry, believes that before a bull market can commence, the price of bitcoin must surpass $100,000, a level that has not been approached recently. Despite a significant gain in April, Terpin asserts that the cryptocurrency is still in a downward trend. His pessimistic outlook contrasts with the views of many analysts who think the low of $60,000 in February marked the end of the bear market and the beginning of a new upward trend.
They base their optimism on the renewed investment in U.S.-listed spot ETFs and bitcoin's resilience during the Iran conflict and the surge in oil prices. However, Terpin argues that the rejection of the $80,000 psychological barrier during Asian trading hours, influenced by high oil prices, is typical of this stage in the bitcoin cycle, characterized by lower highs being rejected until the final collapse. Market analyst Jason Fernandes agrees with Terpin that the bottom has not been reached but disagrees with the timeline, suggesting that the market may not have fully capitulated.
Terpin insists that the fundamentals suggest a bottom that includes the historical average of the one-year period from each cycle's bottom, indicating a price of around $57,000, expected to occur in October. This prediction is based on the timeline from the previous year when bitcoin first fell below $100,000, followed by the October 10 crash, which saw $19 billion in leveraged positions wiped out. Fernandes notes that broader macro conditions could continue to impact risk assets, including bitcoin, due to tight liquidity conditions and risk assets adjusting to a higher-for-longer rate environment. Terpin also believes that bitcoin will not achieve a new all-time high this year, a view disputed by crypto market analyst Mati Greenspan, who thinks there is still room for significant growth this year given the level of institutional adoption and growing interest.
According to Greenspan, the possibility of reaching a new all-time high is plausible. Fernandes also points out that market sentiment has not yet reached the extreme pessimism typically associated with cycle lows, suggesting that another downward movement may be necessary before a sustainable base is formed.