The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a mixed trend, with bitcoin showing minimal movement despite significant fluctuations in other assets. On Wednesday, during Asian trading hours, bitcoin reached nearly $77,000, marking a 0.1% increase over 24 hours and a 0.8% decrease over the week. This stability is notable, especially considering the surge in Brent crude oil prices above $111 per barrel, triggered by a Wall Street Journal report that President Donald Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. In response to the escalating tensions, Iran has signaled its willingness to accept an interim deal to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports.
Meanwhile, other major cryptocurrencies such as ether, XRP, solana, and BNB have experienced declines, ranging from 2.3% to 3.8% over the week. In contrast, dogecoin has seen a 5.5% increase, making it the only top-10 token outside stablecoins to post gains over the past seven days.
As a result, bitcoin's market dominance is gradually increasing, a trend often observed during periods of macroeconomic stress when investors shift their capital to the largest asset. According to Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, bitcoin's relative calmness may indicate a shift in market structure.
Ebtikar notes that the supply overhang has dissipated, and sellers who were previously spooked by macro shifts or quantum fears have already exited the market, resulting in a thinner sell-side. He also believes that bitcoin is less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policy than widely perceived, and its sensitivity is primarily driven by broader market volatility. With the current trading range being relatively quiet, there is no immediate pressure to sell.
From a technical perspective, analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as a critical level that could potentially trigger a breakdown in the upward range that has held since late March. A reversal towards $80,000, on the other hand, would maintain the rally structure intact and set the stage for a retest of the resistance level that has rejected bitcoin's attempts to advance since February. As the Fed prepares to announce its rate decision, followed by the ECB's decision on Thursday, the US equity market has sold off due to growing skepticism about the returns on artificial intelligence capital expenditure. Nasdaq 100 futures have rebounded by 0.4% in Asian hours, while Brent crude oil prices remain elevated near $111, putting renewed pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions.
Traders will be watching closely to see if bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion can withstand the next macro shock. If Ebtikar's assessment is correct, the seller base that capitulated in March and April is no longer a factor, and bitcoin's price will be driven by volatility rather than headlines, unless a new catalyst triggers a fresh wave of selling.