Research has shown that a limited number of traders may be influencing prediction markets, but an even smaller group is accumulating the majority of the profits. According to a recent report by blockchain analytics firm Solidus Labs, profit distribution on Polymarket is highly skewed, with less than 1% of wallets accounting for roughly half of all gains in key markets. The report found that between December 2025 and February 2026, a mere 0.55% of profitable maker wallets captured 50% of gains, while 0.26% of winning taker wallets accounted for nearly the same share, translating to approximately $8 million out of $16 million in profits. This data reinforces the idea that a small minority is driving price movements, and an even smaller minority is reaping the financial benefits.
The disparity highlights that concentration does not necessarily imply wrongdoing, but rather that some traders possess greater sophistication, capital, or speed in acting on information. However, the report suggests that the scale of the imbalance indicates a structural divide between a small group operating with significant advantages and the broader base of participants. The study also identified signs of wash trading, with around 15% of volume in some markets exhibiting patterns consistent with self-trading or economically neutral positions. While some of this volume may be attributed to incentive farming, it is speculated that Polymarket's forthcoming POLY airdrop will factor in trading volume as a metric to allocate tokens.
The report's findings are based on verifiable on-chain data, but the framing of the results is part of a sales pitch for Solidus' surveillance platform, highlighting the need for surveillance infrastructure in prediction markets.