The US-driven rally in April is losing momentum. The Coinbase Premium, which measures the difference between the price of Bitcoin on Coinbase, primarily used by US customers, and offshore exchanges, has turned negative for the first time since early April, according to CryptoQuant data. This metric had been consistently positive from April 8 to April 22, during which time Bitcoin rose from $66,000 to nearly $78,000, peaking around April 22 before declining. The premium's negative reading suggests that US investors are now paying less than the rest of the world, indicating either more aggressive selling or a lack of participation.
On-chain data confirms this trend, with the 7-day sum of Bitcoin Realized Loss, which tracks the total dollar value of coins sold at a loss, spiking to $5.97 billion on April 24 as Bitcoin traded near $78,000. This significant loss suggests that sellers were buyers at higher prices, likely between $80,000 and $95,000 in late 2025 and early 2026, and used the April bounce as an exit opportunity rather than a reentry point. The decline in the Realized Loss metric, from $5.97 billion on April 24 to $4.7 billion by April 28, indicates that the seller cohort is diminishing.
Traders are now watching to see if this trend continues as the underwater supply is worked through.