In six weeks, one of the largest stock market debuts in history is set to take place, and cryptocurrency is part of the same liquidity pool that will be drawn upon. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming for a $75 billion capital raise at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. If successful, this will be more than 2.5 times larger than the previous record set by Saudi Aramco in 2019.
SpaceX is not alone, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, potentially raising over $60 billion and $240 billion combined by the end of the year. This massive capital pull could impact the liquidity of bitcoin and crypto markets, as they are part of the same risk-on liquidity pool as tech and AI equities. The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, is a point of concern. Traders who read the IPO as a signal that crypto was going mainstream spent the next six months watching mainstream capital rotate out.
The lesson is that institutional milestones frequently mark tops rather than starting lines. SpaceX's IPO has two features that connect directly to crypto flows: a 30% retail allocation and the company's material bitcoin position disclosed under the new fair-value accounting rules.
The testable signal going forward is whether crypto holds up through the roadshow window in May and June or begins to drift lower as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription.