Despite Bitcoin's recent 15% gain this month, some industry experts remain unconvinced that the largest cryptocurrency has escaped the bear market that began in October, given it still lags 40% behind its record high. Some forecasters predict a potential drop to as low as $40,000, a 70% decline from its all-time peak. Analyst James Check considers such a move unlikely, stating it would be statistically remarkable, though not impossible. Check references the Bitcoin Mean Reversion Index, which combines key valuation metrics, including the 200-week moving average and realized price.
At $40,000, Bitcoin would rank in the 0.4th percentile of all daily closes, an extraordinary deviation. Check notes this would be equivalent to Bitcoin trading below $2 in 2011 on a relative basis, emphasizing that while no market event has zero probability, a drop to $40,000 would be nearly unprecedented.