Michael Terpin, also known as the 'Crypto Godfather' and author of Bitcoin Supercycle: How the Crypto Calendar Can Make You Rich, believes that bitcoin has yet to hit rock bottom and a new all-time high is unlikely in 2026. Terpin thinks the price of bitcoin needs to break above $100,000 and show no support near that level before a bull market can be declared. He predicts the bottom will be around $57,000 in October, despite a double-digit gain in April, and describes the current state as 'very much still in a bitcoin fall.' Terpin, who founded Transform Group, one of the first PR firms for blockchain companies, and BitAngels, a crypto angel investor group, has a bearish outlook that contrasts with the consensus among analysts who think the February low marked the end of the bear market.
Most analysts point to renewed inflows into U.S.-listed spot ETFs and the token's resilience during the Iran conflict and oil price spike as evidence of a new bull run. In an interview, Terpin said the psychological barrier of $80,000 was rejected during Asian trading hours, which he sees as typical at this stage of the bitcoin cycle.
Market analyst Jason Fernandes agrees that the bottom has not been reached but disagrees with Terpin's timeline, arguing that the market may not have fully capitulated. Fernandes believes that historically, durable bottoms coincide with the exhaustion of speculative leverage and macro uncertainty, which has not happened yet. Terpin insists that the fundamentals point to a bottom around $57,000, which he predicts will happen in October, similar to the timeline of the previous year when BTC first dipped below $100,000. Fernandes notes that broader macro conditions could continue to affect risk assets, including bitcoin, due to tight liquidity conditions and a higher-for-longer rate environment.
The author and entrepreneur also stated that bitcoin will not see an all-time high this year, a view disputed by crypto market analyst Mati Greenspan, who thinks the take is overly bearish and that an all-time high is plausible given the level of institutional adoption and growing interest. Fernandes also said that market sentiment has not yet reached the extreme pessimism typically associated with cycle bottoms, suggesting that one more leg down may be needed before a sustainable base is formed.