The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a unique scenario where Bitcoin is stagnant, while other assets are experiencing fluctuations. On Wednesday, during Asian trading hours, Bitcoin hovered just below $77,000, marking a 0.1% increase over 24 hours and a 0.8% decrease over the week. This stability is notable, especially considering Brent crude oil prices have exceeded $111 per barrel following a Wall Street Journal report that President Donald Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. In response to the situation, Iran has claimed to be in a state of collapse, according to Trump's statement on Truth Social.
Tehran, however, has indicated its willingness to accept an interim deal to reopen the strait if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports. Other major cryptocurrencies, such as Ether, XRP, Solana, and BNB, have experienced significant losses, with declines ranging from 2.3% to 3.8% over the week. In contrast, Dogecoin has seen a 5.5% increase, making it the only top-10 token outside stablecoins to experience gains over the past seven days.
As a result, Bitcoin's market dominance is gradually increasing, a trend often observed during periods of macroeconomic stress when capital flows into the largest asset. According to Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, Bitcoin's relative calmness is indicative of a shift in market structure. Ebtikar notes that the supply overhang has been depleted, and sellers who were previously spooked by macro shifts or quantum fears have already exited the market, resulting in a thinner sell-side.
He also believes that Bitcoin is less sensitive to regulatory noise or central bank policy than widely perceived, and its sensitivity is primarily driven by broader market volatility. With the current trading range being relatively quiet, there is no immediate pressure for investors to exit the market. From a technical perspective, analysts at Bitget have identified $75,000 as a critical level, where a breakdown could lead to further downside.
Conversely, a reversal towards $80,000 would maintain the rally structure intact and set up a retest of the resistance that has rejected Bitcoin since February. As the Fed announces its rate decision and the ECB follows suit, the US equity market has sold off due to growing skepticism about the payoff from artificial intelligence capital expenditure.
Meanwhile, Brent crude oil prices have remained elevated near $111, putting renewed pressure on inflation expectations ahead of the central bank decisions. Traders will be watching to see if Bitcoin's apparent supply exhaustion can withstand the next macro shock. If Ebtikar's assessment is correct, the seller base that capitulated in March and April is gone, and Bitcoin's price will be driven by volatility rather than headlines until a fresh leg of selling is triggered.