Research has shown that a small minority of traders has a significant impact on market prices, but new data suggests that an even smaller group is reaping the majority of the rewards. A recent report by blockchain analytics firm Solidus Labs found that on Polymarket, less than 1% of wallets are taking home roughly half of all profits in key markets. Between December 2025 and February 2026, a minuscule 0.55% of profitable maker wallets and 0.26% of winning taker wallets accounted for approximately 50% of gains, translating to around $8 million out of $16 million in profits.
This data reinforces a trend observed in academic studies, which have found that a small percentage of traders drives most price discovery. The findings suggest a stark contrast between a small group of sophisticated traders and the broader base of participants, with the former operating with significant advantages. The report notes that this imbalance may be attributed to factors such as greater capital, better infrastructure, and more effective execution strategies.
Furthermore, the study identified signs of wash trading, with around 15% of volume in some markets exhibiting patterns consistent with self-trading or economically neutral positions. While some of this volume may be the result of incentive farming rather than manipulation, it highlights the need for surveillance infrastructure to monitor and prevent such activities. The report's findings are based on verifiable on-chain data, but it is essential to consider the context and potential biases, as the firm selling the surveillance platform used in the study has a vested interest in promoting its product.