According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom fund, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets is not just about offering cheaper trading, but also about capturing the upside. Hyperliquid is set to introduce a zero-fee-to-open model for event trading under the Hyperliquid Improvement Proposal (HIP)-4.
Hayes argues that the real differentiator is the HYPE token, which enables users to benefit from platform activity, unlike Polymarket and Kalshi. With a large user base, lower trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure, Hayes predicts that HIP-4 will become a dominant prediction market. The HYPE token has a fully-diluted valuation of around $38 billion, compared to the implied valuation of a potential Polymarket token, which is roughly $14 billion.
The geography of the platforms also plays a role, with Hyperliquid having an edge in Asia, while Polymarket faces regulatory challenges and Kalshi's model is built around compliance and licensing, without token incentives.