In approximately six weeks, one of the largest stock market debuts in history is set to take place, and it may have a significant impact on the crypto market. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. This IPO, combined with the anticipated listings of OpenAI and Anthropic, could pull in over $240 billion from June to the end of the year, surpassing the total amount raised by all venture-backed US IPOs since 2000. The massive capital influx may lead to a reduction in liquidity, affecting not only the stock market but also the crypto market, as investors allocate their funds to these new listings.
The correlation between crypto and the stock market, particularly the Nasdaq and S&P 500, has been tightening over the past two cycles, with bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies often following the trend of the stock market. The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, raises concerns that the SpaceX IPO could have a similar effect on the crypto market. Two key features of the SpaceX listing are connected to crypto flows: the 30% retail allocation, which could divert funds away from crypto, and the company's significant bitcoin holdings, making it the first public-market debut of a company with a material bitcoin position disclosed under the new fair-value accounting rules. The impact of the SpaceX IPO on the crypto market will be closely watched, particularly during the roadshow window in May and June, to see if crypto can hold up or will begin to drift lower as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription.