According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom fund, Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets focuses on capturing upside, not just reducing trading costs. Hyperliquid is set to introduce a zero-fee-to-open model for event trading under HIP-4, but Hayes believes the real differentiator is the HYPE token, allowing users to profit from platform activity.
With a large user base, lower trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure, Hayes predicts HIP-4 will become a dominant prediction market. Unlike Polymarket and Kalshi, Hyperliquid's HYPE token enables users to directly benefit from their platform usage. While Polymarket is expected to launch its own token, and Kalshi's model is built around compliance and licensing, Hyperliquid faces no geographical constraints, with its user base skewed towards Asia, where crypto-native trading is prevalent.