The specter of war with Iran is once again impacting the cryptocurrency market, with bitcoin experiencing a 2.1% decline over the past 24 hours to $75,633, and ether dropping 3.4% to $2,244, as Brent crude oil prices surged 7.1% to $126.41 a barrel, the highest intraday level in four years, following reports that President Trump is to receive a briefing on new military options against Iran. The potential deployment of hypersonic missiles to the Middle East, as requested by U.S. Central Command, has contributed to the rising tensions and increased the war premium in oil prices. This premium, which refers to the portion of an asset's price driven by conflict risk rather than supply-demand fundamentals, has been a significant factor in Brent crude's over 100% year-to-date increase.
The global benchmark has now seen a nine-day winning streak, the longest since May 2022. Other cryptocurrencies, including XRP, Solana, and BNB, also experienced declines, while dogecoin was the only top 10 cryptocurrency to see gains, rising 3.8% on the day and 10.1% on the week.
The surge in oil prices and a hawkish Fed have led to a decline in risk assets, with the Nasdaq 100 futures erasing earlier gains and European equities poised to drop 1% at the open. The dollar has gained, and bonds have slid, as demand for fixed income has decreased.
Bitcoin's ability to withstand the early stages of the war is being tested, with the asset having held a tight band between $74,000 and $78,000 through April, despite oil prices rising from $98 to $126. However, each escalation headline has produced a sharper drawdown, and the cumulative damage is starting to show, with bitcoin now $50,000 below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000. According to Fernando Lillo, director at exchange Zoomex, any break above $80,000 will require the war premium to unwind, and a resolution to the Middle East conflict, which would lead to a drop in Brent crude oil prices below $100 per barrel.
Lillo also flagged a possible scenario where the Trump administration lifts the blockade in coming days, framing it as a response to 'positive steps by Iran,' which could trigger a relief rally and an accelerated influx of capital into risk assets, potentially paving the way for Bitcoin to consolidate above $80,000 and move toward $85,000.