As bitcoin appeared poised to break through the $80,000 barrier, macroeconomic uncertainty reemerged as a significant obstacle. The Pentagon warned US lawmakers that clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz could take at least six months, and this process will only begin after the US-Iran conflict is resolved. According to the Washington Post, the briefing also cautioned that gasoline and oil prices may remain elevated until the midterm elections, posing a risk of persistent inflation.

This could limit the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates, creating a challenging environment for risk assets like bitcoin, which is highly sensitive to interest rates and global liquidity conditions. Rising costs for essential items such as fuel and food may also reduce investors' appetite for speculative assets. Market trends already reflect these risks, with WTI crude climbing to around $95 from $79 last week and government bond yields increasing across major economies. The US 10-year yield has risen by eight basis points to 4.32% this week, while its UK counterpart has increased by 18 basis points to 4.96%.

Michael Kramer, founder and CEO of Mott Capital Management, noted that 'oil prices are rising alongside yields and widening volatility spreads, signaling tighter financial conditions and increasing market risks.' Despite sustained demand for US-listed spot bitcoin ETFs, some analysts are urging caution, arguing that the rally lacks broad-based support in the spot market. Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, warned that 'the recent Bitcoin price increase is completely driven by demand in the perpetual futures market. Meanwhile, spot demand is still contracting (although at a slower pace).

The same happened in January, when Bitcoin peaked at $98K. There are risks of a correction if traders start taking profits while spot demand continues to contract.' The market capitalization of USDT, the largest dollar-pegged stablecoin, has reached a record high of $188.88 billion, while speculation in non-serious tokens is reaching fever pitch. For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today. For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's 'Crypto Week Ahead.'