A historic stock market debut is on the horizon, with SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) expected to take place in June, drawing interest from the same liquidity pool as crypto. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion.
If successful, this would be the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019. Polymarket traders predict a 65% chance of a June listing and a 53% chance that the first-day closing market cap will exceed $2 trillion. SpaceX is not alone, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with the three companies expected to raise over $240 billion from June to the end of the year.
This massive capital pull could trigger a rotation out of equities and into these new listings, potentially compressing liquidity in other assets, including crypto. Bitcoin, ether, and other major cryptocurrencies have traded in tandem with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 over the past two cycles, and when speculative capital leaves equities for an IPO allocation, some of that capital may also leave crypto. The historical parallel with Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, is a point of concern. The lesson is that institutional milestones often mark tops rather than starting lines, as the capital that chases the milestone is the same capital that was previously holding up the asset.
SpaceX's IPO has two features that connect directly to crypto flows: the 30% retail allocation, which is three times the typical retail share, and the company's holding of 8,285 BTC worth roughly $600 million in Coinbase Prime custody. The testable signal going forward is whether crypto holds up through the roadshow window in May and June or begins to drift lower as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription.