The US-driven rally in April is losing steam. The Coinbase Premium, which measures the difference between the price on Coinbase and offshore exchanges, has turned negative for the first time since early April, according to CryptoQuant data.
This metric had been consistently positive from April 8 to April 22, during which time bitcoin rose from $66,000 to a local high of nearly $78,000. The premium peaked around April 22 and has been declining since.
As Coinbase is often used as a proxy for US institutional and dollar-denominated flows, a persistent negative reading suggests that American investors are paying less than the rest of the world, indicating either more aggressive selling or a lack of buying interest. On-chain data paints a similar picture, with the 7-day sum of Bitcoin Realized Loss spiking to $5.97 billion on April 24 as bitcoin traded near $78,000. This metric tracks the total dollar value of coins moved at a loss across the network and is only recognized when holders sell coins below their original purchase price. The recent spike near $6 billion at $78,000 implies that sellers were buyers at higher prices, likely between $80,000 and $95,000 in late 2025 and early 2026, using the April bounce as an exit opportunity rather than a re-entry point.
The combination of these two datasets suggests that US institutional buyers are slowing their purchases through Coinbase, while holders are increasing their selling activity. With bitcoin recently trading around $76,000, traders are watching to see if the Realized Loss metric continues to decline as the underwater supply is worked through. The reading has already decreased from its April 24 peak to $4.7 billion by April 28, indicating that the seller cohort may be dwindling.