The resurgence of the Iran war premium has taken a toll on the cryptocurrency market. Over the past 24 hours, bitcoin has fallen by 2.1% to $75,633, marking a 3% decline over the week, as Brent crude jumped 7.1% to $126.41 per barrel - its highest level in four years - following an Axios report that President Donald Trump is set to receive a briefing on new military options against Iran.
This report also mentioned that the US Central Command has requested the deployment of hypersonic missiles to the Middle East, which would be the first combat use of such weapons by American forces. The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since the onset of the war in late February, severely limiting the flow of crude oil, natural gas, and other petroleum products. This situation has led to a war premium, which is the portion of an asset's price driven by conflict risk rather than fundamental supply and demand. Brent crude has been carrying a significant war premium all year, with prices increasing by over 100% year-to-date.
The global benchmark is currently on a nine-day winning streak, the longest since May 2022, and has risen by over 100% year-to-date. Other cryptocurrencies have also experienced declines, with ether dropping 3.4% to $2,244 and XRP falling 2.1% to $1.37. Solana lost 2.6% to $82.62, while BNB shed 1.9% to $615. The only cryptocurrency in the top 10 to experience an increase, aside from stablecoins, is dogecoin, which rose 3.8% on the day and 10.1% over the week to $0.10.
Risk assets are experiencing losses across the board, with Nasdaq 100 futures giving back earlier gains and European equities poised to drop 1% at the open. The US dollar has gained, while bonds have slid due to the surge in oil prices and a hawkish Fed stance, which has reduced demand for fixed income. Treasury 10-year yields are near their highest level since July, and Japan's 10-year notes have reached their highest level since 1997.
Bitcoin's ability to withstand the early stages of the war is being tested, as the asset has held a narrow range between $74,000 and $78,000 throughout April despite the significant increase in oil prices and the conflict entering its third month. Each escalation in the conflict has resulted in a sharper decline, and the cumulative damage is beginning to show. Bitcoin is now $50,000 below its all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025. According to Fernando Lillo, director at exchange Zoomex, a break above $80,000 requires the war premium to unwind.
Lillo stated that bitcoin is attempting to break the key $80,000 level, which would necessitate a resolution to the Middle East conflict and a subsequent drop in Brent crude oil prices below $100 per barrel. He also flagged a possible scenario in which the Trump administration lifts the blockade in the coming days and frames it as a response to positive steps by Iran, potentially triggering a relief rally. A potential lifting of restrictions in the region and lower oil prices could lead to an accelerated influx of capital into risk assets, paving the way for bitcoin to consolidate above $80,000 and move toward $85,000.