A historic stock market debut is approaching, and it may draw interest away from crypto assets. SpaceX has filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of $1.75 trillion. If successful, this would be the largest stock market debut in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019. The listing is expected to take place in June, with Polymarket traders assigning a 65% probability to this timeline.
SpaceX is not alone, as OpenAI and Anthropic are also planning to go public, with valuations nearing $1 trillion and $60 billion, respectively. The combined capital raised by these companies could exceed $240 billion, surpassing the total venture-backed US IPOs since 2000. This massive influx of capital may lead to a rotation out of equities and into these new listings, potentially affecting the crypto market.
Crypto assets, including bitcoin and ether, have been trading in correlation with the Nasdaq and S&P 500, and a shift in speculative capital could impact their value. The historical precedent of Coinbase's IPO in 2021, which marked the peak of the last bitcoin cycle, serves as a warning that institutional milestones can signal market tops rather than new beginnings. The SpaceX IPO has two key features that connect to crypto flows: a 30% retail allocation, which could divert funds away from crypto assets, and the company's material bitcoin position, disclosed under new fair-value accounting rules.
The upcoming roadshow in May and June will be a test for crypto, as allocators free up room for the SpaceX subscription. A bitcoin rally during this period could suggest that crypto has decoupled from broader risk-on flows, but a decline could indicate that the market is still intertwined.