Bitcoin's recent ascent towards $80,000 is showing signs of weakness, with low trading activity and subdued derivatives market activity raising concerns about the rally's sustainability. In his weekly report, 10x Research's Markus Thielen highlighted a discrepancy between the price movement and the underlying market participation, stating that 'Bitcoin rallied 4.7% over the past week, yet the accompanying data tells a cautious story beneath the surface.' Trading volumes have decreased significantly, with bitcoin's weekly volume 17% below average and ether's volume down 20%.
Funding rates, which measure leveraged positioning, remain deeply negative, with Thielen noting that 'funding rates fell 6.8% to the 3rd percentile and volumes collapsed 33% to the 4th percentile.' This suggests that the price increase was driven by spot buying or short covering rather than conviction from leveraged long positions. Institutional investment has been a positive factor, with bitcoin ETFs recording nine consecutive days of inflows, resulting in total April inflows of $2.5 billion. However, Thielen warned that the rally's structure remains fragile, with the market shifting to a 'low-funding, low-volume regime that historically reflects hesitation rather than momentum.' The options market reinforces this view, with volatility falling into the lower quartile of its historical range and traders expecting relatively modest price fluctuations in the coming week.
Ethereum's market also shows a similar picture, with even weaker participation and limited appetite for risk. Despite these signals, the setup is not entirely bearish, with the risk of forced liquidations on the downside reduced due to limited leveraged long positions.
Thielen noted that 'near-term risk/reward is asymmetric to the upside if a catalyst emerges,' which may come from outside the crypto space, with macroeconomic developments being a key factor in determining direction in the days ahead.