Recent findings indicate that a small subset of traders is exerting significant influence over prediction markets, with an even smaller group accumulating the majority of the profits. According to a report by blockchain analytics firm Solidus Labs, fewer than 1% of wallets are capturing roughly half of all gains in key markets on Polymarket. Between December 2025 and February 2026, a mere 0.55% of profitable maker wallets and 0.26% of winning taker wallets accounted for approximately 50% of the gains, translating to around $8 million out of $16 million in profits.
This data reinforces earlier academic research suggesting that a small minority of traders drives price discovery, with a smaller minority reaping the financial rewards. The report highlights the disparity between a small group of sophisticated traders and the broader base of participants, noting that while concentration does not necessarily imply wrongdoing, it does suggest a structural divide. The study also identifies potential signs of wash trading, with around 15% of volume in some markets exhibiting patterns consistent with self-trading or economically neutral positions.
Solidus Labs' findings are based on verifiable on-chain data, although the firm's sales pitch for its surveillance platform, HALO, should be considered when interpreting the results.