Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, believes that Hyperliquid's foray into prediction markets will be driven by who captures the upside, rather than just cheaper trading. Hyperliquid's zero-fee-to-open model for event trading under HIP-4 is expected to introduce a new layer of competition. Hayes argues that the real differentiator is HYPE, Hyperliquid's exchange token, which allows users to profit from platform activity. This sets it apart from Polymarket and Kalshi, which do not currently offer this benefit.
Hayes predicts that HIP-4 will become a dominant prediction market due to Hyperliquid's large user base, lower trading fees, and robust tech infrastructure. Users who own the $HYPE token can directly profit from their usage of HIP-4.
In contrast, Polymarket is expected to launch a token, and Kalshi's model is built around compliance and licensing, without token incentives. The geographic landscape also plays a role, with Polymarket facing regulatory challenges in Asia, while Hyperliquid has a strong user base in the region.
The contrast between Hyperliquid, Polymarket, and Kalshi highlights the different approaches to prediction markets, with Hyperliquid's token-based model potentially giving it an edge.